Если у вас возникли сложности с курсовой, контрольной, дипломной, рефератом, отчетом по практике, научно-исследовательской и любой другой работой - мы готовы помочь.
Предоплата всего
Подписываем
Kenneth Rapoza, Contributor
|
1/24/2013 @ 7:00AM |
Russia's Three Biggest Problems
The Russian bear is back to hibernating.
The World Economic Forum released a 52 page report Wednesday outlining what hundreds of business leaders in the country feel to be the biggest challenges in the years ahead.
As the sixth largest economy in the world (as measured in purchasing power parity), a member of the G8, G20 and UN Security Council, Russia is justly confident in its development ambitions. It wants to be taken seriously around the world. The impact of the global financial crisis, however, highlighted the vulnerabilities in the economy’s reliance on energy exports, while presidential elections in 2012 raised important discussions about the country’s future economic policies and brewing social unrest.
See: Scenarios For The Russian Federation –World Economic Forum
“Russia is not going to be the next big thing,” Frances Hudson, Global Thematic Strategist at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, said in an interview with Forbes. “There is a corporate governance issue and an over-reliance on oil and gas at a time when they may lose their pricing power in Europe once U.S. starts exporting natural gas.”
According to the report, there are three key uncertainties hanging over Russia.
1. Global Energy Landscape
Russia’s economy relies heavily on its energy sector for economic growth, with an extremely tight correlation between oil prices and the country’s GDP.
In the coming decades, Russia will face at least three challenges emanating from a changing global energy landscape. The first will be increased supplies of oil from sources ranging from the United States to Iraq. The second challenge for Russia will be turning the threat of unconventional gas resources into an opportunity, given the potential of shale to undermine Russia’s hold on its traditional and prospective gas importers. The third shift Russia will need to master is in response to a changing demand landscape where, according to all major projections, non-OECD economies will account for the largest share of future fossil fuel demand. Finally, it remains to be seen whether Russia can lead a changing global market structure or whether it merely trails along. While the country could be at the helm of an OPEC-style organization to regulate gas supplies and prices, for example, it could also lose out to strong competition in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector and elsewhere.”
2. Weak Institutions
Russia’s institutional environment ranking 133 out of 144 countries in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index 2012–2013, the development of the country’s institutions represents one of its key challenges.
Many of the inefficiencies in the government apparatus can be attributed to high levels of corruption. Russia is characterized by much higher levels of corruption than other countries with similar levels of development. While Russia is the sixth largest economy worldwide in GDP, corruption levels are higher than in countries such as Togo orUganda, according to Transparency International…. Some argue that corruption has become engrained in the country’s system of wealth creation and distribution. In this perspective, corruption may be seen by some as a necessary evil to maintain stability and control over productive processes in the economy.”
3. Social Cohesion
Trust within society and towards institutions and decision-makers is a key indicator of a society’s ability to fully develop its productive potential. On all of these fronts, there are signs Russia faces significant uncertainties.
The number of professionals seeking to leave Russia exceeds 50% in certain segments. This not only reduces the creative potential to support economic development in the country, but accentuates capital flight and reduces domestic consumption. The same conditions also affect the country’s ability to attract foreign talent, which could play an additional role in the next stage of developing the Russian economy. The situation has grown so acute that some participants in this project expressed despair at the fact that Russia has, alongside its better-known role as energy exporter, become a full-blown exporter of financial and human capital….(A rise in) wealth has been accompanied in recent years by a rise in diverse forms of popular discontent, including frustrations with the delivery of public services, perceived impediments to pursuing professional aspirations and restraints on political freedoms.”
The report concludes that while there are many positives occurring in the Russian economy, overall it has grown fragile. Russia’s weakness is linked to two related dynamics. First, due to its strong reliance on energy exports, Russia is more affected than other countries by fluctuations in the global economy. Any slowdown in global demand or change in the global energy landscape directly affects Russia’s check book. Second, the complex interactions between the inflow of energy revenues, the quality of its domestic institutions and the dynamics of social cohesion have created barriers in the quest to fully develop the country’s physical and human resources. This combination could be a key impediment to Russia’s future economic development given that these resources are the country’s most important assets.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/01/24/russias-three-biggest-problems/