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Britain's economy remains fragile but 'improvements are beginning to be seen' says OECD chief economist
Josephine Moulds and Phillip Inman
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 28 March 2013 11.46 GM
Britain's economy is getting stronger and should avoid a triple-dip recession, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
The Paris-based thinktank sounded a positive note for the global economy as a whole, saying the outlook had improved since its last update in November.
The UK is expected to show annualised growth of 0.5% in the first quarter, and 1.4% in the second. Pier Carlo Padoan, deputy secretary general and chief economist of the OECD, said: "The situation [in the UK] is still fragile. I think the policy course, both in terms of monetary and fiscal policy, is going in the right direction and improvements are beginning to be seen."
That view was reinforced by a survey of the UK's services industry that showed it improved in January, offsetting a weakening picture in the construction and manufacturing sectors.
The Office for National Statistics said services, which account for three-quarters of economic activity, expanded by 0.3% on the previous month and 0.8% ahead of the same month a year earlier.
Unfortunately for ministers hoping to see an improvement in private sector businesses, the strongest element of the services index in recent years has proved to be government spending. The financial services sector has almost recovered to its pre-recession peak, leaving the distribution, hotels and restaurants, and transport, storage and communication sectors well below their pre-recession high watermark.
Chris Williamson, chief economist of financial data provider Markit, said services data combined with strong retail sales would persuade the Bank of England to stay its hand when it meets next week.
The OECD said economic activity was picking up in many major economies. It expected the US to rebound in the first three months of this year, while Japan has been boosted by a new growth strategy and stimulus package.
But it said improvements in financial markets around the globe had not been fully reflected in real economic activity, in part because confidence remained low.
Padoan warned that the flood of cheap money into the system, via generous stimulus packages, had also led to some "excessive risk-taking".
"We have now learned that imbalances build up in a way we tend to ignore," he said. "Let's watch prices of assets going up which are not warranted by fundamentals. Let's be very careful. At the same time, let's be careful of not putting a brake on the recovery that is slowly materialising. It's a delicate balancing act." In its interim assessment of the global economic outlook, the OECD said a meaningful recovery in Europe would take longer than in the rest of the G7. It blamed this on a deteriorating jobs market, which had depressed consumer confidence.
"Especially in Europe, the rise of long-term unemployment, with more of the unemployed moving off unemployment insurance on to less generous social benefits, is worsening poverty and inequality," it said.
The thinktank also highlighted the growing divergence between Germany, which it expects to pick up strongly in the first half of this year, and other economies, which are forecast to either contract or show minimal growth.
Germany is expected to grow by 2.3% on a yearly basis in the first quarter, and then 2.6% in the second. By contrast, France is forecast to shrink by 0.6% on a yearly basis in the first quarter, followed by 0.5% annualised growth in the second quarter.
Growth in emerging markets is still much faster than in the G7 and these countries will drive the global economy this year. The OECD said annualised growth in China was expected to continue to be well above 8% in the first half of 2013.